World Bank Warns of 23 Percent Commodity Price Spike in 2026

Living costs and winter heating expenses in Sweden face renewed pressure next year. The World Bank forecasts global commodity prices will jump 23 percent in 2026.

Energy prices will lead the increase with a 32 percent surge. This rise reverses three years of falling energy costs. Brent crude oil is expected to average 91 dollars a barrel in 2026. That is up from 69 dollars in 2025. Conflict in the Middle East has depleted global oil inventories.

Food commodity prices will also rise 18 percent across 2026 and 2027. Disrupted grain shipments and El Niño climate patterns threaten harvests. Higher fuel and fertilizer costs are driving up agricultural production expenses. Fertilizer costs alone will rise 14 percent in 2026.

Industrial metals will reach record high prices with a 25 percent increase in 2026. Demand from electric vehicles, data centers, and renewable energy remains strong. Precious metals are set to surge 40 percent as investors seek safe assets.

Global oil production is projected to fall 5.2 percent in 2026. Oil consumption will also shrink by 2.5 percent. Electrification in China is helping to reduce global oil demand. However, supply shortages continue to draw down oil reserves worldwide.

Ayhan Kose is the World Bank Deputy Chief Economist. He warned that higher energy costs and trade disruptions threaten global economic growth. He noted that these shocks could worsen inflation and food insecurity.

To help vulnerable countries, the World Bank is making up to 60 billion dollars available in financing. Prices are expected to ease slightly in 2027 if geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further.