Chinese Outbound Travel Forecast Adjusted Downward for 2026

Travel forecasts show fewer Chinese tourists will travel abroad in 2026.

This trend could affect flight availability and ticket prices to Europe.

It may impact residents in Copenhagen planning trips or family visits.

Data firm China Trading Desk lowered its 2026 outbound travel forecast.

The firm now expects about 179 million overseas trips.

That is a three percent drop from earlier estimates made in June.

Total destination spending is projected at about 258 billion US dollars.

Economic uncertainty and a property slump in China drive the caution.

Travelers are not stopping travel, but they are choosing trips carefully.

Subramania Bhatt from China Trading Desk shared these market observations.

He noted that travelers who go abroad are maintaining their budgets.

The weakness comes from fewer total trips, not smaller individual budgets.

Average spending per visitor remains stable at about 1,437 US dollars.

Long-haul trips to Europe face stronger competition from closer Asian destinations.

Hong Kong and Macau are expected to capture nearly 40 percent of trips.

France expects around 2.2 million Chinese visitors this year.

However, premium travelers to France spend about 7,622 US dollars per visitor.

Trip volumes remain seven percent higher than 2025 levels overall.

The market recovery has slowed down, but it continues to grow.